2013/10/22

US Treasury buyers and sellers, August 2013 data


US Treasury has just released August data about long term US Treasury securities net purchases by foreign countries. This is for us a major indicator for their confidence in the status of the dollar or their support of the current international monetary system. 

The Adjusted Total was -10,762 million US$, including a subtotal for Foreign Official Institutions which is -10,860 million US$.
Conclusion: A strong net lack of confidence by central banks, and a zero net purchase by big investors.

Who were the top 20 selling countries for Long-Term UST this month ?


Euro Area is the top seller, and interestingly this month with the addition of Mexico and Caribbean countries. With the exception of Uruguay and Colombia, all Latin America countries are net sellers.
Who were the top 20 buying countries for Long-Term UST this month ?


"International" means IMF here. 
Surprisingly, part of BRICS and part of Eurozone have bought Long term UST, in addition to the US usual financial allies. Could this be in order to avoid a much  too rapid collapse of UST foreign buying ? 

In any case the global result is currently a freefall, as depicted by TIC flows :

Data serie since 1978 up to now (USD millions);
12 months moving averages, updated monthly; source: nowandfuture.com


2013/10/17

La force motrice irrésistible des BRICS pour construire le monde d'après

 Depuis fin juin et le début de la fable d'un soit-disant amoindrissement de la politique QE par la FED, à laquelle n'ont cru que ceux qui voulaient bien y croire et pas ceux comme nous qui ont gardé une analyse critique indépendante, les commentateurs plus déboussolés que jamais se sont essayés au 'BRICS bashing'. Comme toujours pour ces derniers, il vaut mieux être payé pour avoir tort tous ensemble que raison tout seul. A cette faillite du courage, ce manque de devoir et ce naufrage de la lucidité, nous avons toujours rétorqué non pas par un simple 'mieux vaut être seul que mal accompagné', mais par des analyses qui n'ont pas (elles) que l'apparence de la rationalité et par des propositions politiques innovantes.

Au sujet des BRICS et de leur dynamique irrésistible, le Professeur Toloraya a récemment publié un article très éclairant : "Russia hopes BRICS can create a polycentric world", que j'ai traduit pour l'initiative Euro-BRICS du Laboratoire Européen d'Anticipation Politique. Voici un court passage de "La Russie espère que les BRICS puissent créer un monde multipolaire":
"Voir uniquement les BRICS comme un groupement économique sous-estime non seulement les options que ce partenariat international a à sa disposition, mais aussi le rôle potentiel qu’il aura dans la politique globale du futur."
On peut également trouver éclairant cet extrait de nos indicateurs clés sur la crise systémique globale :

(graphique actuellement généré par la Federal Reserve suite à leur migration technique défectueuse de mars 2014)
Evolution du pourcentage du PNB annuel par rapport au PNB mondial pour les US, l'Eurozone, le Japon, et l'ensemble des BRICS (Brésil, Russie, Inde, Chine, Afrique du Sud)

Et la semaine dernière Alexandre Kateb publiait dans Le Monde: "Pourquoi les pays émergents resteront au centre de la croissance mondiale". Le vent tourne dans les rédactions des journaux 'mainstream'.

Nous le répétons, il est grand temps pour la zone Euro de mettre en place une stratégie cohérente de partenariat avec les BRICS, plutôt qu'en rester à la multiplication des relations bilatérales. Les résultats et l'impact en seraient démultipliés. Si ce n'est pas une absence de vision, c'est alors le signe d'une absence de volonté propre qui nuit aux aspirations des peuples européens, et qui met en évidence le déficit démocratique de la construction européenne actuelle. La voie la plus porteuse d'avenir, c'est la stratégie Euro-BRICS.

[ Kateb est l'auteur de l'essai paru en mai 2011 "Les nouvelles puissances mondiales. Pourquoi les BRIC changent le monde". Il peut se lire dans le prolongement du livre de Franck Biancheri "Crise mondiale : en route pour le monde d'après" publié en octobre 2010.]

2013/10/14

Remembering Bob K.

A revolution is coming — a revolution which will be peaceful if we are wise enough; compassionate if we care enough; successful if we are fortunate enough — But a revolution which is coming whether we will it or not. We can affect its character; we cannot alter its inevitability. 
(R. F. Kennedy, 1925 - 1968 ; Speech in the United States Senate, 9 May 1966) 

Our answer is the world's hope; it is to rely on youth. The cruelties and the obstacles of this swiftly changing planet will not yield to obsolete dogmas and outworn slogans. It cannot be moved by those who cling to a present which is already dying, who prefer the illusion of security to the excitement and danger which comes with even the most peaceful progress. This world demands the qualities of youth: not a time of life but a state of mind, a temper of the will, a quality of the imagination, a predominance of courage over timidity, of the appetite for adventure over the love of ease.[...]
First, is the danger of futility: the belief there is nothing one man or one woman can do against the enormous array of the world's ills — against misery, against ignorance, or injustice and violence. Yet many of the world's great movements, of thought and action, have flowed from the work of a single man. [...]
It is from numberless diverse acts of courage and belief that human history is shaped. Each time a man stands up for an ideal, or acts to improve the lot of others, or strikes out against injustice, he sends forth a tiny ripple of hope, and crossing each other from a million different centers of energy and daring those ripples build a current which can sweep down the mightiest walls of oppression and resistance.[...]
The second danger is that of expediency: of those who say that hopes and beliefs must bend before immediate necessities. Of course, if we must act effectively we must deal with the world as it is. We must get things done. But [...] there is no basic inconsistency between ideals and realistic possibilities, no separation between the deepest desires of heart and of mind and the rational application of human effort to human problems.[...because] it ignores the realities of human faith and of passion and of belief — forces ultimately more powerful than all of the calculations of our economists or of our generals. Of course to adhere to standards, to idealism, to vision in the face of immediate dangers takes great courage and takes self-confidence. But we also know that only those who dare to fail greatly, can ever achieve greatly.[...]
And a third danger is timidity. Few men are willing to brave the disapproval of their fellows, the censure of their colleagues, the wrath of their society. Moral courage is a rarer commodity than bravery in battle or great intelligence. Yet it is the one essential, vital quality of those who seek to change a world which yields most painfully to change.[...]
For the fortunate amongst us, the fourth danger, my friends, is comfort, the temptation to follow the easy and familiar paths of personal ambition and financial success so grandly spread before those who have the privilege of an education. [...] 
There is a Chinese curse which says, "May he live in interesting times." Like it or not we live in interesting times. They are times of danger and uncertainty; but they are also more open to the creative energy of men than any other time in history. And everyone here will ultimately be judged — will ultimately judge himself — on the effort he has contributed to building a new world society and the extent to which his ideals and goals have shaped that effort. 
(R. F. Kennedy, 1925 - 1968 ; Day of Affirmation Address, 6 June 1966)

     O captain! dear father! 
     This arm beneath your head; 
     It is some dream that on the deck, 
     You've fallen cold and dead. 
My Captain does not answer, his lips are pale and still; 
My father does not feel my arm, he has no pulse nor will; 
The ship was long ago anchor'd safe and sound, its voyage since never closed and done; 
From fearful trip, the victor ship, has yet to come in with object won; 
(inspired by W. Whitman - 1865)